Congratulations & Conclusions

The first ever IceHL season is officially over. I'd like to send a very sincere congratulations to Steve Sonricker and his Alaska Huskies.

Goaltending was the difference in this league and the Huskies proved it by winning on the backs of Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne and Corey Crawford.  That's a fantastic trio of goaltenders for any fantasy hockey team, not to mention one in a 20-team league. This allowed Alaska to go on an historic winning streak of 17 straight match-ups despite having a group of forwards and defensemen who were not as deep as other teams around the league.

Let's break it down and compare that to my team, the California Wave. What we see is almost the exact opposite philosophy with similar results. The Wave did finish 4th overall and did have a 7 week win streak down the stretch. I would say that the forward group that the Wave had was probably the deepest in all of the IceHL. Alex Ovechkin and Patrick Sharp were great all year. We had a solid seasons from Nathan Horton, Brad Boyes and (surprise, suprise) Derick Brassard. And then we had a dominant group of forwards down the stretch. Patrick Marleau, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Michael Grabner were phenomenal. And Brian Rolston and Jason Pominville were no slouches either.

Our defense was possibly slightly above average. Zdeno Chara had a good year, and Keith Yandle broke out for a huge year and probably led the team to a few wins. From there, you could look at the other D spots in one of 2 ways: good luck because of decent production from a rotating cast, OR bad luck because of the potential depth we could have had. Injuries and real-life coaching decisions took away what could have been good fantasy seasons for Andrei Markov, Ed Jovanovski, Justin Braun, Grant Clitsome and Mike Commodore (Yes, Commodore! He was averaging about 2 IceHL points per game for the Wave.)

And then we get to goaltending... Going in to the year, I thought the Wave were set. I saw that goalie wins as a category were worth 5 points each, and I knew that would be the difference-maker in the league. I set my pre-draft rankings with the top 10 goaltenders in my top 15 picks, figuring that's where I'd go. I did, however, keep a few players above that group of goaltenders: Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos. So of course, I ended up with the #1 overall pick and much weaker goaltenders. Oh well, that's just one of the perils of an auto-draft.

Anyway, we still ended up with Marty Turco, Dan Ellis and Steve Mason. I thought that would be more than enough. All 3 were going to be starters for what could be good teams. In fact, I thought we had goalies to spare, so we traded Mason for Nathan Horton early on. We ended up picking up Brent Johnson and he had good, if limited, season. Things were looking good.

Unfortunately, I forgot that Turco sucks (Haha, this is coming from a life-long Sharks fan, after all). Ellis was underwhelming for the majority of the year, however, did turn it on once he made it to Anaheim. Speaking of Anaheim, we even picked up Jonas Hiller in the playoffs as insurance. I'd be guaranteed to get the Anaheim starts, right? No. Ray Emery had to get starts down the stretch. To make matters worse, Emery was owned by our playoff opponents, the Saskatoon Sharpshooters. There's a slight chance that could have been the difference in that match-up (Although Emery only ended up with 6.6 points in the week and we lost by.. a bit more than that).

So the Wave ended up finishing 4th in a league of 20. I'd say that's something to be proud of, and hopefully, I'll get a chance to improve on that next year. I want to thank all of the followers of the IceHL, the other managers, the logo designers (especially JFred for making an awesome California Wave logo) and, of course, Chris Smith for giving me this opportunity and making this all possible.

And with that, it's time for my WAVE goodbye.

The Playoff Picture for California & Beyond!

Sorry about the lack of updates. With the holidays and school starting, I think I (and others) may have been content with just updating their various Twitter pages.

Speaking of the Tweety-Box:

As mentioned on @Ed_Kodiaks twitter: “Ala, StL, Edm, Sas, Sea, Hou, Que, Cal, Wsh, Ham, Van all battling for 8 Playoff positions... Been a great first #IceHL season”

Let’s take a closer look at that playoff picture with only 2 weeks left.

1 x- Alaska 14-3

2 y- St. Louis 13-4

3 Houston 11-6

4 Hamilton 9-8

5 x- Edmonton 13-4

6 Saskatoon 12-5

7 Seattle 11-6

8 California 10-7

9 Quebec 10-7

10 Washington 10-7

11 Vancouver 9-8

Only Alaska, St. Louis, and Edmonton have clinched a playoff spot. I believe Quebec has the tie-breaker over Saskatoon, so the Sharpshooters have not clinched quite yet. Only St. Louis has clinched their division due to their tie-breaker vs. Seattle.

I think it’s pretty safe to assume Saskatoon makes it in. I would think only one of Vancouver or Hamilton will make it based off of winning the Smith Division.

That leaves 5 teams (Houston, Seattle, California, Quebec & Washington) squaring off for 3 spots.

From the looks of it, the Wave’s destiny is in their own hands, and with a 4-game winning streak & a tie-breaker vs. Houston, there’s a good chance we can make the playoffs. Especially if Michael Grabner stays hot.

What do you think is going to happen in the IceHL playoff picture?

Update on Tuesday · Feb 22 · 2011 | 12:51 AM PST by Jon W | California Wave

Let's take a look at the updated standings going in to the last week of the IceHL regular season:

1 y- Alaska 15-3

2 y- St. Louis 14-4

3 California 11-7

4 y- Hamilton 10-8

5 x- Edmonton 14-4

6 x- Saskatoon 13-5

7 Quebec 11-7

8 Washington 11-7

9 Seattle 11-7

10 Houston 11-7

ELIMINATED

11 Vancouver 9-9

Alaska has clinched their division and the #1 spot. St. Louis, Edmonton and Saskatoon have clinched the #2, 5 & 6 spots, respectively. Hamilton has clinched their division and are currently the only team to have clinched a spot without also clinching a specific seed.

The Robbins division is really going down to the wire. Currently, there is a 3-way tie for the division lead between the Wave, Sentinels and Hellcats. California is technically leading the division based on head-to-head tie-breakers against the other two teams. This is a good spot for the Wave, because if we win, we're in.

If we lose, however, that could be a problem. California has the tie-breaker against every team in the hunt except for Quebec. Quebec plays Washington this week, and I believe Washington clinches a spot with a win regardless of other matchups. If Quebec loses, California would need both Seattle and Houston to lose to still make the playoffs. To make matters worse, Seattle is playing 2-16 Winnipeg this week, a very probable win for the Aviators.

Well, there's a very simple way to avoid this headache for the Wave: win. Let's go for our 6th straight win this week against Montreal (8-10) and push hard as we go in to the playoffs!

Speculation

After the Sentinels were demolished in week one by the Sharpshooters from Saskatoon, we bounced back to .500 with a solid second week. In the two weeks since, however, our offensive woes have been on full display. Week three saw us take four full nights of action to crack the 10-point barrier, and though we made a valiant comeback effort last week against the California Wave, our current record stands at 1-3.

Even moreso, perhaps, than our offense, we continue to be a victim of my pre-draft plan to go heavy on goaltending. As I pointed out in my last post, the theory is, and remains, sound. But things could not possibly have gone more wrong. The Sabres' Ryan Miller struggled early, and has been hurt for the last 10 days. Tuuka Rask has been relegated to almost exclusively a backup role, and Marc Andre-Fleury ... well, there's just not a whole lot to say about him. He looks nothing like the Olympian and Stanley Cup winner he was the last two seasons, and every time the Pens' coaching staff gives him an opportunity to break out of his funk, he gets shelled. I think he actually has *negative* points for the year.

During a brief three-day period when Semyon Varlamov was healthy, I was able to flip him to Edmonton for Jonathan Toews, a move that has worked out decidedly well for us certainly, but still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I guess bad luck runs in circles beyond only my squad.

However, if -- and it's a big "if" -- there's a bright spot, it comes in the form of rookies. 

In just about every fantasy hockey draft I've done, I've had the most fun in the first couple of weeks of the season, as the hotshot rookies and other new players who went undrafted try to stake their claim for a lineup spot. It's a lot of speculation involved, as last-years first rounder could start on the first line out of camp, but struggle and get demoted, or worse, sent back to junior or the AHL.

As this year's fantasy waiver wire opened up, I knew I was in need of some offense, and I knew I'd probably be able to find a rookie or two who'd be able to stick. The only question was who? In a deep league like ours, the obvious names -- Eberle, Hall, Seguin ... even Kadri -- all went in the draft. So if I was to hit paydirt, it was going to be in the form of a real hidden gem. 

An early stab at some defensive help -- Anaheim's Cam Fowler -- hasn't panned out. He's getting minutes, but is hardly an offensive force, even for a defenseman. After reading that P.A. Parenteau was going to be getting first-line time with Tavares with Okposo out, I jumped at him, and he's actually been solid, though has tailed off a bit of late (perhaps as a result of Schremp returning).

But I did manage to knock one out of the park -- an 18 year old kid who was drafted 7th overall (about 15 spots higher than projected) by Carolina: Jeff Skinner. Obviously, by virtue of his draft position, the 'Canes saw something in him that others didn't, and it's paying off for them, just as it is for the Sentinels. When I heard he was going to make the team out of camp, I thought about grabbing him right away, but I was concerned that he'd only stay for his 9-game audition before being returned to the OHL. But after two games, I decided that I couldn't afford not to take the chance.

As the team's leading scorer, the Hurricanes are no doubt thrilled with how Skinner has played so far. Indeed, so am I.

Lumberjack Be Nimble

Hey guys — James checking in from the Lumberjacks. After a rough start to the season, I've managed to pull together a few wins in a row, and we sit at a respectable 2-2 now. Here's some updates on recent moves:

From the Waiver Wire/Free Agency, I've picked up:

• Martin Biron: I needed another goalie who, y'know, wasn't in the AHL. Biron won't get tons of starts, but he's a solid hand when in net, and I'll be able to get a few points out of him when he is.
• Tom Poti: Injury prone, yes, but, be plays on Washington, and I needed defencemen in the worst way. He hasn't done much for me so far (injuries, shocking), but he'll get me a few points eventually... right?
• Kris Russel: Once again, another defenceman. He hasn't really done much for me so far, but he's sadly an upgrade over what I had before.
• Filip Kuba: Kuba has been out since the star tof the year, but he's coming back soon, and the guy puts up points, especially on the PP. I'm glad I picked him up.
• Kyle Wilson: Playing the odds here - Wilson is getting 2nd line and PP minutes in Columbus, and it's inevitable he'll get some points. He got 6.4 points for me last week, which is pretty good for someone who no one else wanted. Once again, it was an upgrade.

All in all, the pickups I've made have been minor, but, I'm in a better spot than I was before. As for the rest of the team, there's good an bad. First off, the good:

• Sidney Crosby is doing exactly what I hoped. I can count on him to get me at least a few points every night, and you need that kind of consistancy in a league like this.
• Mathieu Garon has been a surprise, but a welcome one. He got two shutouts last week, but sadly, only one of them counted - a complete mistake on my part, as I didn't have him in the line up that day. Luckily, it didn't cost me a win, but it was a wake up call for sure.
• James Wisniewski, despite the suspension, is getting 1st PP Unit time in Long Island, and he's puting up points. Part of me wants to trade him while his value is high, and I know he can't keep this pace up for the whole year, but I just can't justify dealing away my top scoring defenceman right now.
• Justin Williams has turned out to be pretty solid - he's actually my second highest point producing forward (behind Crosby, of course). I've seen a lot of his play, and the guy is clutch - he's had a few game winners, and I think he'll continue to do so.

However, with the good, there's the bad:

• Antii Niemi's stock couldn't be lower right now. He's not getting starts, and when he does, San Jose is playing terrible. Right now, I definitely lost the Perry/Neuvrith for Niemi/Kostistyn trade.
• My ace in the hole, Jordan Staal, was finally set to return from off-season foot surgery... and promptly breaks his hand in practice, and will be out for another 6 weeks. I was really hoping he would help shore up my offence a little, but I'll have to wait even longer.

All in all, I could be much worse. I'm not getting a huge amount of points, but luckily, neither have my opponents. I know I have no say in that though, so I just have to focus on getting better players at the right time — that's a little tricky though, when 19 other GMs are doing the same thing.

Up this week are the Houston Hellcats — a 3-1 team. This will be a good test this week.

Trades, Trades, a Win, and More Trades

Looks like I’ve become the lone blogger. Haha. Regardless, it’s been an eventful week or so here for the California Wave. First of all, have you been reading out tweets? If you have, you could have seen how a trade comes to pass. That’s how I was able to work out my first trade since my last post.

Well, trade talks for Joe Pavelski fell through, but I did get another Shark. I successfully offered Henrik Zetterberg to the Calgary Cavalry in exchange for Patrick Marleau. It could go either way, and Zetterberg has been awesome so far, but, I can’t resist getting my favorite player. Besides, how can you hate on the HTML! (Heatley, Thornton, Marleau Line)

From then on, it seems like I just got a couple great trade offers. We were able to shore up our D a lot by acquiring Andrei Markov from the Aviators for Jarret Stoll. I liked Stoll, but we needed Defenseman in the worst way. Markov is now probably our best fantasy D-man now. Plus, we didn’t even have wait for Markov to heal up. He was back by the time we got him.

We also just recently acquired Rick Nash for Claude Giroux. Yeah, that didn’t take me too long to accept. Talk about “buy low, sell high.” Since we got him though, Nash has seemed to click on a line with Brassard, making our team even better. Brassard is actually leading the team in points this week so far. WHAT!? Maybe that wasn’t the worst 4th round pick ever.

Things are looking up for the Wave. We’re winning this week, and we’ve got the 2nd most points scored by any team in the IceHL. I think my next move might be to try to pick up a new goalie through a trade either in a package deal with a forward and goaltender, or just a forward (Although that Toews for Varlamov deal that went down a while back seemed like a bit too high of a price to pay).

Until next time: keep it real, keep it fresh, and keep it real fresh. (Yeah, I brought it back.)